New research from the UK Trade Policy Observatory at the University of Sussex paints a gloomy picture of the impact of Brexit on the UK’s manufacturing sector.
The research, published today (Tuesday) concludes “none of the five Brexit scenarios that we model leads to a positive outcome for UK manufacturing. Even if the UK were to remain a member of the European Economic Area (EEA), UK manufacturing industry risks shrinking as a result of the UK leaving the EU.”
The researchers also say: “Although post-Brexit trade barriers may lead to expansion in output in some manufacturing sectors, this will come at the expense of higher prices for consumers and for producers buying intermediate inputs.”
Their report states “High tech and medium-high tech manufacturing sectors are more at risk of a significant decline in domestic production than medium and medium-low tech sectors.” And adds, “Signing new trade deals with other countries, no matter with whom or how many, will not fully compensate for the loss of trade with European partners if the UK leaves the EU with no deal.”
Commenting, Tom Brake MP, leading supporter of the Open Britain campaign, said:
“Jacob Rees-Mogg’s economics guru professor Patrick Minford said Brexit would ‘eliminate’ manufacturing and on this evidence it appears that he, and not all those leave campaigners who promised Brexit would lead to a new golden age for British manufacturing, is being proved correct.
“The reality of Brexit is that this vital sector risks being absolutely clobbered, whatever deal the Government manages to negotiate.
“Creating new barriers to our trade with Europe will lead to higher prices for UK consumers and producers, lower UK exports, and the risk of job losses. And, as this report shows, high-tech manufacturing sectors will be particularly badly hit.
“As new facts like these emerge, everyone concerned about the future of British industry is right to keep an open mind.”
Notes to editors
The report can be read at: http://blogs.sussex.ac.uk/uktpo/publications/which-manufacturing-sectors-are-most-vulnerable-to-brexit/